🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.